Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf295eea803311beef77f308cb33bbf54a6380001547797cebab55107b39c1414
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,711 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 2c | 579.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…66ddbacked Yes | 24c | 294.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 276$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 274.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 271.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 222.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 164.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 162.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed Yes | 39c | 152.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 38c | 104.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 37c | 96.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 51c | 93.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 85.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…1bc7backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 29c | 73.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…a1cebacked Yes | 39c | 69.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 67.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 51.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 35c | 50.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 214 | 33.6%72 W · 142 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 45.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 38c | 38.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 40c | 35.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 32.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 36c | 31.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 75c | 28.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 65c | 27.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…f988backed Yes | 40c | 25.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 71c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.