Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd65f18a1790a8fa7215b233d81dfdf7685273086dacee59491d94a3a3caa175d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,233 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 0c | 12,505$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed2…9d21backed No | 6c | 1,753$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 1,346$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.78 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…a1cebacked Yes | 53c | 451.42$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 433.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 367.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 12c | 333.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.45 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…5439backed Yes | 70c | 285.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 276$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.61 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 187.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 16c | 168.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed Yes | 12c | 164.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 8c | 162.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 160.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…8410backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 46c | 109.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 92.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 12c | 90.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 38c | 84.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked No | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1dd8backed No | 57c | 71.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked No | 55c | 69.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 24c | 61.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…1bc7backed Yes | 58c | 43.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 56c | 40.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 44c | 37.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 57c | 35.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 58c | 33.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 32.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…165abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 45c | 25.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 25.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 51c | 21.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 62c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.