Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf29d87cc280095cf68316a64657e7b8236e566f1fccad9ac26d8c6ed92bf95af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 1,061$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.61 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 903.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 39c | 540.12$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.86 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 287.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 276$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 77c | 249.59$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.18 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 29c | 184.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 184.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 27c | 179.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 175.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.35 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 164.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 69c | 161.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 23c | 152$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +15.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 151.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 139.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 80c | 133.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 132.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 125.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed Yes | 23c | 113.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 18c | 92.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 63c | 85.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 47c | 83.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…c906backed Yes | 26c | 79.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 27c | 75.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 66c | 70.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 63c | 69.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 68.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 64.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 62.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 24c | 47.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 46.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 45.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 45.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 67c | 38.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 37.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 75c | 33.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 73c | 32.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…68b5backed Yes | 63c | 31.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 26.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 76c | 16.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 76c | 15.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 15.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 74c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 75c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.