NHL · resolved market
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b1e81b016a781e7569eaec51dd4fa1bbb7bc4373a8228000b4f7fcd6c1edb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Yes | 21c | 510$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8f…8cc2backed No | 79c | 491.93$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 307.45$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 75c | 209.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 31c | 204$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…2ce1backed No | 68c | 90.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…6f3dbacked Yes | 31c | 54.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…8f46backed Yes | 34c | 52.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a1…4739backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 59c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 71c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 61c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?this page
- Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Yes won
- Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.