NHL · resolved market
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778595b1da94166e8593dd8bb4088ed8116dd31e0305a4ca632a3461b7883bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 41c | 7,074$2,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.87 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 52c | 6,083$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.88 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 73c | 1,657$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.79 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked No | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 75c | 973$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.98 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 604.43$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 578.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked No | 35c | 399.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…bb53backed Yes | 45c | 257.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes | 50c | 238$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 72c | 225$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…1ebfbacked No | 45c | 213.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 175.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b87…06d1backed Yes | 56c | 158.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 155$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…af6bbacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 478 | 45.8%219 W · 259 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 146$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 59c | 128$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…b3e7backed Yes | 75c | 100.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 86.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…3b04backed Yes | 76c | 76.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b49…9bdcbacked Yes | 61c | 71.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 43.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 55.3%84 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?this page
- Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.