NHL · resolved market
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95cd0ff6c13866396851dad5646867609e16c4f256a4e88744c3bb615a391f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc430…1ebfbacked Yes | 39c | 71,644$28,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,191.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked No | 44c | 25,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,000 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed No | 69c | 24,117$16,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,490.8 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 65c | 17,315$11,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,023.38 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed No | 33c | 11,665$3,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,774.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…06fabacked Yes | 70c | 8,817$6,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,169.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…3220backed No | 75c | 4,296$3,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Yes | 70c | 4,119$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.23 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 25c | 4,008$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.24 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 68c | 2,757$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 73c | 2,598$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.41 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 32c | 2,333$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.6 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 61c | 2,331$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 38c | 1,894$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.58 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 67c | 1,179$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.6 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Yes | 44c | 1,100$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.99 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 69c | 815.76$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…ee25backed Yes | 71c | 636.5$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 47c | 633.23$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.74 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 34c | 546.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.78 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 67c | 499.97$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 52c | 472$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.96 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 71c | 389.36$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.03 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8f…8cc2backed No | 40c | 371$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.76 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 346.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes | 62c | 332.8$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…8f64backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 207.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…68d3backed Yes | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 33c | 190$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…316abacked Yes | 69c | 152.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed Yes | 34c | 147.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 139.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Yes | 73c | 137.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…ef23backed Yes | 73c | 137.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes | 29c | 123.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 120.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 113$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 109.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 105.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed No | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 31c | 92.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 83.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 69c | 80.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 49c | 73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 57c | 68.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 72c | 65.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…d379backed Yes | 32c | 60.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7d…86f6backed Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…7dddbacked Yes | 56c | 50.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed No | 45c | 44.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 58c | 43.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…4168backed No | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9243…92dcbacked Yes | 25c | 40.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dc66backed Yes | 44c | 36.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed No | 34c | 35.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…1cb7backed Yes | 62c | 35.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1661…d2efbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 54c | 29.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fb…83b6backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…af34backed Yes | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 27.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 45c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 63c | 23.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…727abacked Yes | 67c | 23.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 54c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 21.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?this page
- Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Yes won
- Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
- Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.