Tennis · resolved market
New Delhi: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Rio Noguchi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2bd25a85bf527bdaaf25c63a6f63d62205c1c41499ee8fe548d554f9dd100bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noguchiof Manas, Noguchi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Noguchi | 57c | 25,000$14,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,749.99 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Manas | 42c | 15,764$6,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,566.72 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Manas | 46c | 10,423$4,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,792.64 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Noguchi | 47c | 6,068$2,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234.82 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Manas | 1c | 4,146$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Manas | 49c | 2,739$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.19 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Manas | 45c | 1,505$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.6 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manas | 44c | 956.91$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.24 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Manas | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Manas | 45c | 491.55$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.95 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Manas | 42c | 378.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Manas | 6c | 266.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Manas | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Manas | 35c | 230.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Noguchi | 58c | 202.38$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Manas | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Manas | 43c | 167.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Noguchi | 61c | 165.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Noguchi | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Manas | 46c | 146$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Noguchi | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Noguchi | 56c | 136.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Manas | 58c | 121$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked Manas | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…c76abacked Manas | 48c | 104.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Noguchi | 51c | 100.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Manas | 41c | 96.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…9541backed Noguchi | 54c | 92.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Manas | 28c | 76.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Manas | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…9827backed Manas | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Manas | 26c | 56.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…28edbacked Noguchi | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…7ed5backed Manas | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Noguchi | 53c | 41.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Noguchi | 54c | 40.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Manas | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c4…fe40backed Noguchi | 47c | 38.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Noguchi | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Noguchi | 37c | 37.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…b2cebacked Noguchi | 54c | 36.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Manas | 47c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…a021backed Noguchi | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Manas | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Noguchi | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 202 | 70.8%143 W · 59 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Noguchi | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Noguchi | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 245 | 63.3%155 W · 90 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…b335backed Manas | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Noguchi | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 235 | 54.5%128 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.