Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2d27f43761603a968c7c4855697aff6bb91e59a85fc5630486de1a4243ca909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd109…dc00backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 66c | 716.77$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.56 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed No | 78c | 349.32$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 16c | 299$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 19c | 298.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 23c | 239.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 67c | 230.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9c…5e6abacked No | 12c | 228.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.39 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 74c | 152.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 11c | 133.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 23c | 120.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 40c | 107.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 89.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb6…85afbacked No | 60c | 83.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 15c | 72.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 68.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 30c | 64.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 56.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…5e28backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…6b2dbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 22c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 46.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 29c | 44.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 64c | 40.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 80c | 39.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 38.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 28c | 37.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 78c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…2f7ebacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 24.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 77c | 21.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 70c | 21.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 67c | 20.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 18.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 70c | 18.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 72c | 16.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…665ebacked Yes | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 71c | 15.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.