Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d71a4f3ce0bfb16129501adcc62905b31d22acd0c52291e90591987a814396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 760.38$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 5c | 546.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 338.93$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 17c | 302.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 259.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…230ebacked Yes | 27c | 182.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…ed4abacked Yes | 61c | 164.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 139.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 125.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 32c | 121.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 28c | 120.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 116.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 14c | 87.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…5e28backed Yes | 15c | 78.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…6fd5backed Yes | 48c | 73.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 47c | 68.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 71c | 65.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 80c | 47.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 67c | 46.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b78…8601backed Yes | 29c | 44.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 38.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 61c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 47c | 31.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 43c | 31.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 46c | 31.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 30.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 43c | 30.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 60c | 21.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…31dcbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a7…4a24backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.