Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2dd5c172ccaa36ac6112e1dfa1467c88f5c9349e5e6c88698092d665af52715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 1,658$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 58c | 985.47$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.9 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 71c | 938.56$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.85 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 71c | 348.91$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 58c | 336.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 40c | 288.31$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 60c | 266.45$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 59c | 203.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 43c | 202.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Under | 43c | 193.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…916ebacked Under | 31c | 154.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 141.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 79c | 114.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 40c | 97.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 44c | 82.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 78.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 20c | 78.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 74.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 58c | 59.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 29c | 58.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 43c | 46.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…84d3backed Under | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 44.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 37.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Over | 57c | 29.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 43c | 27.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 43c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 71c | 25.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Under | 44c | 24.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Over | 59c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.