Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4899cbcabe73107600e036a51278e492b862b76c2b057c0a5658cd7e57f40d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 44c | 999.97$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 55c | 991.89$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 61c | 976.7$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Under | 51c | 783.97$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 36c | 534.23$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 36c | 526.72$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.68 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 20c | 476$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 318.18$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 80c | 305$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 58c | 298.55$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 25c | 225.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 36c | 219.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 45c | 214.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 45c | 214.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 45c | 214.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 45c | 214.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 45c | 214.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 34c | 196.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 155.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 148.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 43c | 139.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 134.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 56c | 128.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 56c | 128.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 24c | 112.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 45c | 98.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 95.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 45c | 91.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 51c | 84.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 53c | 79.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 55c | 49.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 55c | 47.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 41.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 33c | 39.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Under | 50c | 39.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 38.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15c4…5e52backed Under | 68c | 37.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 62c | 31.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Over | 50c | 31.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 50c | 26.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 48c | 24.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…05d7backed Over | 57c | 17.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.