Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15b8e6121d25701baaf3f4d9118834bfcd560e69a36023396c9ab200434ecef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 2,468$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 1,838$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.4 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 1,645$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.94 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 52c | 1,581$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.64 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 29c | 1,523$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 1,222$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.89 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 61c | 1,177$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 38c | 1,016$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.09 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 974.8$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.42 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 52c | 900$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 36c | 689.95$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.38 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 42c | 685.29$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 645$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.88 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 18c | 549.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.79 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Over | 41c | 499.98$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 77c | 421.01$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.64 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 299.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 64c | 282.1$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 37c | 262.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 41c | 210.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 53c | 196.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 66c | 183.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…63afbacked Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 47c | 172.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 70c | 167.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 70c | 166.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 68c | 153.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 153.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 23c | 151.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 75c | 144.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 24c | 135.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 25c | 131.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 75c | 124.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 61c | 122$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 39c | 118.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 113.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 61c | 112.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 110.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 99.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 41c | 90.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 41c | 88.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 61c | 81.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 74.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 77c | 72.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 62c | 60.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 38c | 58.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 31c | 55.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 53c | 55.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 45c | 52.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 26c | 51.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 41c | 46.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 41c | 46.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 63c | 44.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Under | 29c | 42.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 64c | 40.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Under | 42c | 39.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 52c | 34.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…05d7backed Over | 63c | 31.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 49c | 31.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 75c | 27.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 65c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.