Mls · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d95205d42fd5698981cfb96ec0ff2f5072e6129defa14c536d99bf056bd493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Dallasof Seattle Sounders FC, FC Dallas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Seattle Sounders FC | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked FC Dallas | 65c | 775.3$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FC Dallas | 61c | 715.85$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.18 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…e9e8backed FC Dallas | 42c | 695.15$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 67c | 611.17$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.15 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Sounders FC | 43c | 587.72$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Sounders FC | 48c | 542.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.72 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Seattle Sounders FC | 37c | 536.12$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed FC Dallas | 60c | 489.42$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FC Dallas | 61c | 481.33$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.39 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Seattle Sounders FC | 47c | 448.86$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cd3fbacked FC Dallas | 58c | 369.29$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 51c | 318.3$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Dallas | 34c | 300.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Dallas | 69c | 282.64$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Seattle Sounders FC | 34c | 200.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed FC Dallas | 54c | 162.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed FC Dallas | 57c | 118.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked FC Dallas | 66c | 103.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked FC Dallas | 48c | 92.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 35c | 84.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed FC Dallas | 57c | 67.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Sounders FC | 37c | 60.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed FC Dallas | 60c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Dallas | 54c | 47.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 42c | 44.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked FC Dallas | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 35c | 42.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 36c | 38.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked FC Dallas | 72c | 38.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 37c | 33.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Seattle Sounders FC | 35c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed FC Dallas | 60c | 28.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Dallas | 57c | 27.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…a6f0backed FC Dallas | 55c | 27.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FC Dallas | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed FC Dallas | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.