Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2edd17f747c706d7946e949a3824ab5ea5209f12eb22f4a689645e612b43f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,945 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 41c | 1,578$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.77 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 712.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 65c | 482.69$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.41 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 56c | 385$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 343.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…ec6ebacked Yes | 21c | 341.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.27 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 295.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 293.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 28c | 274$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 67c | 209.27$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 202.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 26c | 195.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.42 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 70c | 187.79$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 185.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 21c | 166.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 67c | 163.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 78c | 163.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 141.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 79c | 139.94$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 137.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 25c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 108.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed No | 25c | 99.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 66c | 95.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 14c | 93.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 90.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 87.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 17c | 86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 82.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 22c | 82.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 76.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 44c | 76.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 18c | 75.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 17c | 75.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 17c | 71.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 21c | 63.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 53.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 47.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 44c | 45.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed Yes | 26c | 43.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 30c | 40.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 39.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 54c | 33.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 38c | 30.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…854bbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 21.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 20.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…c846backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.