Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76d3b804cb0522fc30c3b0dd533ef12bbee6ca0efd220db76275d04e5533fe78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,247 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1933…5f8dbacked Yes | 33c | 2,699$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…b7cfbacked No | 67c | 1,351$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…9b47backed No | 67c | 1,348$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 32c | 625$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.96 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 31c | 452.57$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 44c | 389.67$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.97 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 49c | 380.5$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.89 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 248.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 39c | 233.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 231.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 215.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 211.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 203.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 20c | 201.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 148.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 147.37$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 140.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 51c | 133.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 112.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 16c | 107.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 60c | 100.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 61c | 100.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…fc11backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 61c | 90.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 60c | 84.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 15c | 82.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 75.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed No | 67c | 73.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 65.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7c…b91dbacked No | 62c | 62.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 62.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 49c | 60.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 43c | 57.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 54c | 55.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 47.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 44.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 39c | 43.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 58c | 43.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 28c | 42.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 41.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 62c | 41.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 40c | 40.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 38c | 39.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 39.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 46c | 35.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed No | 64c | 31.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf177…3469backed Yes | 36c | 30.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 29.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 40c | 28.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 64c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 66c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 69c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 74c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.