Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ef341be6f3f109a7b3a6f4e24102878f02e9b8c55c657fbbf0bde5830fe7f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 56c | 1,479$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.92 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 32c | 455.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 75c | 395$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.24 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 285.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.93 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 263.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 64c | 231.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 213.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 37c | 168.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 155.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 151.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 80c | 149.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 21c | 140.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 47c | 116.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 111.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 105.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 94.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 93.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 91.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 73.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 61c | 66.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 36c | 64.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 63.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 63.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 57.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 73c | 55.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 53.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 19c | 51.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 78c | 51.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 34c | 48.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 44.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed No | 72c | 39.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 55c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 74c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 33.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 75c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 65c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 29.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 40c | 29.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 40c | 25.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 21.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 65c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.