Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2fe91e88465520559ef27c58ca7227aade778157fd0c0ebb570b834dfd688aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,649$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,102$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,031$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.41 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 80c | 601.42$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 76c | 573.62$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 23c | 555.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 24c | 519.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 8c | 500.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 16c | 352.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 308.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 13c | 299.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 15c | 263.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 225.87$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 220.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 215$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 208.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 20c | 203.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 192.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 22c | 184.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 178.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 7c | 160.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 155.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 152.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…c563backed Yes | 10c | 148.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 142.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…31b0backed Yes | 8c | 142.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 136.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 80c | 135.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes | 25c | 128$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 26c | 114$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 24c | 101.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 13c | 79.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 77.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 70.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…c7edbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 23c | 64.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 52.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 49.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 44.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes | 28c | 42.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…1845backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 27c | 38.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 80c | 22.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…6bb5backed No | 75c | 18.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 72c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 79c | 14.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.