TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes50c3,074$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.1531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa3…31a0backed No48c2,111$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c819$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.525,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes71c788.99$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes59c652.55$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.397832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes41c577.93$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c547$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.234,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes61c528.07$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0731943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c516.76$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No49c407.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No30c343.3$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No43c339.97$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.292,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No28c338.46$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.225,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No33c336.78$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.743,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c330.82$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.734,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c322$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.573,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No57c314$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.984847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No23c313.87$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4746626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c299.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.586,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes79c251$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4633561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes79c235.74$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No34c232.88$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.191,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c232.04$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.941,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No38c214.7$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.451,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No51c213.27$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7726744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes52c205.85$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.531,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe445…8750backed No43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-55.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7d82…1263backed Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes60c196.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.191,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No33c186.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.571,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c172$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No37c170.79$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes58c150.08$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8640741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x823d…2db3backed No43c150$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes74c144.52$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes55c122.27$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.591435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes57c122$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.321,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes78c119.43$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.437949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No25c119$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.753,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No44c114.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes48c112.94$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No33c110.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.852,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes47c107.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.024738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No39c102.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4935344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c101.21$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.248,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3648149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3986…71fcbacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x678c…6558backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.53426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed No52c99.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.499625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c98.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No55c98.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.352,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No31c92.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.782,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c91.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No20c91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1228456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No31c89.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.561,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No53c88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4363757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No34c85.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.44546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No38c84.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.313,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No35c84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.44647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No14c80.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.38947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes45c77.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2946240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No43c75.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.592,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c72.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…712bbacked No69c72.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503455.9%19 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes20c68.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1824442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed No36c68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4843842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes78c65.19$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No80c64.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.862,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes31c64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1611729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6248…27f6backed No78c60.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.593053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No36c60.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c6…9d95backed No34c60.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac2…058dbacked No34c59.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No51c58.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes68c58.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5411343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked No43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.942321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.942,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No46c56.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.41330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes47c56.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.813,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No37c54.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.082,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes49c54.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5746743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed No49c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9911027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.518862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b60…558dbacked Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212576%19 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No44c49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.42,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No35c44.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fff…8f49backed No35c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.565932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No52c41.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.672,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes42c41.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9913051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No34c40.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.922,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed No39c38.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No53c37.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8854857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes48c37.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4855538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No65c37.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.149361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.