TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes23c3,041$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.0631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes26c1,345$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.1389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes15c577.86$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0545130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c569.7$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.751,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c567.78$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.238,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c538.97$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.175,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes25c480.5$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.132,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes19c425.03$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.614,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No77c286.61$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.383,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No75c275.48$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.231,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c193.51$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c191.17$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.381,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c187.88$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.234,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c167.45$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.386,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes34c161.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8573927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c157$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No73c156.74$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8121268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes26c153.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c152.56$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No72c145.29$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c135.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.453,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No73c133.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.971,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes28c131.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.091,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No77c124.96$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.853,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No72c116.64$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.12,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No69c115.83$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.371,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b60…558dbacked No74c112.15$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.782576%19 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No69c110.34$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.039679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes28c106.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.134738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c105.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed Yes29c102.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes30c95.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No80c92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.622,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No79c89.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad71…05cdbacked Yes17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No73c85.62$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1227376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No80c82.17$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.772,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes20c82.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0831124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes20c81.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.022,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No68c81.45$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.762,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No76c79.65$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9746626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes23c79.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3120231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c79.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No72c76.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2137355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes22c70.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.294311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No77c66.92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.292,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1f…493cbacked No77c65.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.823876.3%29 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x837c…d774backed No80c62.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.524562.2%28 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes18c56.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.312,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes18c55.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c54.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad10…d0a7backed Yes18c54.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes31c52.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.283435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec21…c83fbacked No77c52.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.267166.2%47 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1734934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1048149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.433654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f9…7764backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.072,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ac…c567backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164231%13 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No72c48.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.613274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c41.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.367,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes28c40.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3748919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No80c40.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed Yes30c39.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.034052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes25c39.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1113051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No74c38.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.144,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdad0…da08backed Yes29c37.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.94922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No76c35.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No71c35.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3388973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No73c34.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0317553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No65c30.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5533351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.342151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.243441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.494,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No69c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6899571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No68c24.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8511257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463d…abb2backed No67c24.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.084139%16 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c23.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.182,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No67c22.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3826861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No66c22.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4479255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No67c21.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.189361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.37467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No69c20.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bea…bab9backed No66c19.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.782263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No65c19.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8482562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No71c19.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cf…76b3backed No69c19.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.014158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7506…6996backed No72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11593.3%14 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick72cpaid+30.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No72c17.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.981,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4875…149bbacked No77c16.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.684955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.