Earnings · resolved market
Will GoPro (GPRO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf30336690af57f64f7e87478c386a8006965f85e38bbb4af104b764150338b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,962 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27d8…5058backed Yes | 2c | 2,042$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 8c | 720$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 15c | 540.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 59c | 503.91$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 6c | 393.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 12c | 339.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 12c | 330.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 12c | 321.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 21c | 293.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 269.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 258.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 9c | 241.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 239.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 40c | 197.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 197.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 17c | 188$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…fadcbacked No | 61c | 164.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 13c | 159.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 25c | 154.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 39c | 149.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f4…2a6cbacked No | 75c | 110.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 13c | 107.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…1bd9backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…a251backed Yes | 18c | 80.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked No | 73c | 71.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…1b4fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…4472backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…1f9abacked No | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…55ebbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd825…df6fbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 69c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.