MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf33c33105f5aaa8cfcbd6f08001c872cf2fbb942aa55b80799691e6be8b39042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 5,061$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,445.25 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 5,053$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 350.14$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 53c | 198.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 154.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 151.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 108.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 88.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 30c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 58c | 43.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 51c | 34.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489c…1a43backed Over | 37c | 30.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.