MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb18420f358b2b3d0451c658c91c76b0928c45bef86fc1109cad0c21a9e15af1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 5,660$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 3,472$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.84 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 3,306$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 2,962$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 2,933$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 2,653$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 2,387$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 1,021$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.82 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 955.17$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 639.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.22 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego Padres | 13c | 441.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 401.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 381.36$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 74c | 312$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 299.73$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.57 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 283.39$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Kansas City Royals | 68c | 243.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 233.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked San Diego Padres | 21c | 227.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 193$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 161.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 136.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 130.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 116.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 114.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 103.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 93.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 83.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Kansas City Royals | 75c | 77.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 65.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 16c | 63.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 62.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 75c | 59.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 52.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 51.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Kansas City Royals | 74c | 50.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Kansas City Royals | 73c | 46.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 43.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 42.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 37.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 35.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Kansas City Royals | 69c | 31.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Kansas City Royals | 75c | 26.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 23.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.