MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ae65519ca688e5ec67b586e46592c74a03c2a1f4f261e9b9dde98eae1f9732a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 53c | 10,863$5,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,757.36 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Over | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,770 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 5,035$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.98 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 4,272$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 1,708$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.19 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 1,382$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 60c | 1,161$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 998.79$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Under | 52c | 599.32$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 590.74$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 410.26$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 387.16$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 57c | 365.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 59c | 310$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 28c | 291.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 37c | 257.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 53c | 238$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 57c | 229.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 192.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 52c | 185.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 53c | 182.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 57c | 174.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 58c | 165.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 48c | 157.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 55c | 155.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 131.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 55c | 127.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 109.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 105.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 66c | 102.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 99.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 61c | 82.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 77.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 48c | 70.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 48c | 70.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 53c | 45.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 63c | 44.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 71c | 42.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 73c | 41.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 43c | 39.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 42c | 37.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 31.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 28.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 38c | 28.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 49c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 57c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 69c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.