Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf33e9c241a617b32436fc26c5dcbc36d26296a488f99baca22f7a53f0e446b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 14c | 395.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 362.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 268.33$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 207.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 204.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 49c | 202.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 25c | 173$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 150.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 47c | 148.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 76c | 131.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 20c | 121.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 119.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 53c | 107.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 85.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 81.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 18c | 78.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 19c | 78.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 73.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 64c | 70.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…0d63backed Yes | 71c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 20c | 65.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 62.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 58.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 42c | 55.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 51c | 51.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 39c | 48.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 22c | 48.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 39c | 46.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 34c | 46.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 27c | 40.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 44c | 40.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 32c | 37.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 30.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 29.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 48c | 28.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked Yes | 39c | 26.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 59c | 25.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 22.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 64c | 19.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 60c | 17.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…59c8backed Yes | 75c | 14.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.