Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ee29d17e1debe087b4c9e80af0c805b2e89689c3ccabb49d5f7736b6fff85b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 545.21$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 427.07$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 35c | 302.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 29c | 258.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 70c | 225.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 222.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 213.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 212.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 29c | 175.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 175.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 71c | 160.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 151.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 25c | 145.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 141.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 120.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 101.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 72c | 73.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 72.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 18c | 70.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 31c | 65.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 64.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 61.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 23c | 44.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 38.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 28.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 70c | 26.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 25.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 21.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 74c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 69c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.