Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723c46ede9def84d3fb97702fb351460ce2e2b47e0236705332d83276319531d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,442$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 1c | 955.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 609.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f012backed Yes | 41c | 577.01$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 487.64$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 403.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 344.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 333.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 328.36$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 34c | 268.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 259.6$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 257.53$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 51c | 223.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 58c | 186$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 67c | 152.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 143.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 142.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 141.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 135.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 130.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 129.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 124.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 47c | 120.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 66c | 117.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 111.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 108.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 70c | 100.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 75c | 88.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 48c | 83.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 70c | 80.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 80.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 76.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 71.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 67.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 56c | 66.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 66.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 76c | 65.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 53c | 59.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 58.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 66c | 57.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 34c | 56.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 55.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 55.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 53.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 53.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 53.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 50.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 50.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 52c | 48.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 47.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 43.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 43.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…d206backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 39.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 38.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 47c | 38.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 69c | 36.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 43c | 35.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 34.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 36c | 33.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 53c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 54c | 27.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 51c | 27.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 39c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 57c | 26.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 25.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 48c | 21.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.