South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf34e22013b78a23833336094f0c4592f773758584e4cb800b16c6194923deea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 50c | 25,000$12,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,492.84 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 50c | 23,712$11,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,856.2 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c35…20c0backed No | 50c | 8,657$4,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,294.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 45c | 3,614$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 44c | 2,690$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.88 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 2,211$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.58 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 54c | 1,867$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.9 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed No | 46c | 1,614$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,448$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 53c | 1,221$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.51 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…90dfbacked Yes | 40c | 1,033$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…af42backed No | 31c | 800$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 53c | 717.3$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.48 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 46c | 577.58$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.07 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 56c | 535.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 49c | 461.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.04 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 54c | 437.49$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 38c | 258.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Yes | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…4b7dbacked Yes | 51c | 225.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…78b1backed Yes | 51c | 204.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes | 55c | 196.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 53c | 190.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 54c | 185.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 54c | 158.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 50c | 125$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…9134backed Yes | 52c | 118.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 50c | 117$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 32c | 116.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 47c | 110.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 56c | 104.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 52c | 99.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…1790backed Yes | 78c | 93.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 56c | 92.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 53c | 77.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 54c | 74.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 44c | 65.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…efa6backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 55c | 46.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd440…3e3cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 49c | 43.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a74…a307backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…00c9backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4367…99efbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Yes | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Yes | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…295ebacked Yes | 41c | 34.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…7846backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce1…047fbacked Yes | 56c | 31.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…7d49backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…cf40backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked No | 39c | 25.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 61c | 25.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…1c3dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b23…b672backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14?this page
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Tucumán win on 2025-11-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.