Premier League · resolved market
Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf364f13189d1e2f2dcb6ed95c717f0f62225929706e25ddaba09eb418d53ed5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 4,394$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.86 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 3,210$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.39 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 55c | 2,551$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.26 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 50c | 1,989$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.05 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 28c | 1,449$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.27 | 117 | 27.4%32 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 71c | 1,057$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.97 | 167 | 57.5%96 W · 71 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 13c | 897.8$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 68c | 836.02$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.44 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 66c | 770.72$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 66c | 770.72$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 69c | 724.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 689.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 13c | 682.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 66c | 431.22$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 65c | 418.85$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.76 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 78c | 359.9$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 329.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 306.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 305.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 14c | 294.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 14c | 271.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 14c | 250.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 14c | 181.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 55c | 174.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 71c | 151.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 116.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 17c | 111.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 15c | 111.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…64f1backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 18c | 57.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Over | 46c | 54.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.4wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 22c | 50.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 47c | 44.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Under | 77c | 37.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 74c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 67c | 21.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Ipswich Town FC won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-2.5)Ipswich Town FC won
- Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)Birmingham City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.