Serie A · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf37b392836d74f874a6ca6d516e130343bc1919c4fe7ef62214788194492c0e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 36c | 50,000$18,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,000 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 64c | 49,996$31,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,998.58 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 15,314$10,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,991.05 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 13,324$4,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,435.08 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 32c | 2,051$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.75 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 68c | 1,559$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.39 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 33c | 1,059$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.05 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,020$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked Yes | 45c | 891.6$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 862$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 63c | 827.04$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.73 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 69c | 815.09$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 62c | 750$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 64c | 650$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 39c | 593.65$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 566.39$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 432.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 36c | 415.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 39c | 410.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…a43dbacked No | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 62c | 350$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 71c | 288$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f5…e4dabacked Yes | 40c | 250.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 62c | 218.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 63c | 196.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 60c | 181.36$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 63c | 165.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 40c | 126.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…2927backed No | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 63c | 89.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 61c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…df3cbacked Yes | 18c | 82.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 38c | 77.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 61c | 57.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -8.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…92bdbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 61c | 52.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…baefbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 40c | 49.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…a303backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…b6c4backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 31c | 38.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493e…f994backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 33c | 31.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…8056backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…de6dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…0339backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…cf3bbacked No | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…9f85backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?No won
- Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.