Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3806005191cb7dbd37e2c565a17abfded5d27641d101c6fa6e92eac14643dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof Level UP, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked PuckChamp | 32c | 3,522$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.01 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Level UP | 63c | 2,152$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.38 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed PuckChamp | 12c | 1,919$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.82 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Level UP | 65c | 1,245$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.31 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PuckChamp | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PuckChamp | 26c | 550.51$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed PuckChamp | 34c | 510$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…9b4dbacked PuckChamp | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp | 13c | 493$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Level UP | 68c | 449.45$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.06 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PuckChamp | 3c | 379.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Level UP | 55c | 330.26$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked Level UP | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 224 | 38.8%87 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PuckChamp | 33c | 311$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…f520backed Level UP | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…2711backed PuckChamp | 34c | 292.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp | 13c | 288.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…cc48backed Level UP | 64c | 282.14$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Level UP | 60c | 238.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed PuckChamp | 8c | 223$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 37c | 217$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked PuckChamp | 44c | 169.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Level UP | 58c | 160.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Level UP | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PuckChamp | 16c | 148.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed PuckChamp | 45c | 129.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp | 39c | 127.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Level UP | 64c | 107.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Level UP | 68c | 102.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Level UP | 57c | 93.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…a8d8backed Level UP | 61c | 91.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked Level UP | 57c | 91.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp | 33c | 87.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed PuckChamp | 46c | 80.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Level UP | 64c | 63.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked PuckChamp | 33c | 62.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Level UP | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Level UP | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked PuckChamp | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Level UP | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Level UP | 65c | 46.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Level UP | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed PuckChamp | 43c | 45.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Level UP | 66c | 41.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Level UP | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…e4f5backed PuckChamp | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6744backed Level UP | 57c | 28.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Level UP | 64c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Level UP | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Level UP | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Level UP | 63c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Level UP | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Level UP | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BLevel UP won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerLevel UP won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.