Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3a005c37fe9d3bd64b43031baed19d7599b849e7c6b61c198502e18b9b69e2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 194.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 59c | 169.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 160.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 100.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 89.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 88.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 80.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 80.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 80.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 47c | 60.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 57.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 53.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 51.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 49c | 47.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 51c | 47.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 46.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 45.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 45.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 43.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 41.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 41c | 41.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 40.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 75c | 32.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 29.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 39c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 27.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 59c | 23.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 23.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 61c | 21.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 75c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.