Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Iron Wing (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3b7f3a58d858f5fecb984775f1d290406511d3bcfadb65e345425801b9988aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iron Wingof Team Liquid, Iron Wing
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…2759backed Iron Wing | 72c | 1,160$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.54 | 290 | 43.4%126 W · 164 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Team Liquid | 29c | 621.93$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Iron Wing | 73c | 464.46$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Liquid | 43c | 459.94$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Iron Wing | 57c | 418.19$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…ecc5backed Team Liquid | 28c | 411.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Iron Wing | 69c | 343.23$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Iron Wing | 73c | 325.04$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 192 | 60.4%116 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Team Liquid | 27c | 293.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Team Liquid | 28c | 240.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Iron Wing | 73c | 233.01$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Iron Wing | 65c | 229.23$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Team Liquid | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Team Liquid | 28c | 192$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Team Liquid | 26c | 173.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Iron Wing | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Liquid | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Iron Wing | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Team Liquid | 44c | 56.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Team Liquid | 28c | 51.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Liquid | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 524 | 50.8%266 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…4774backed Iron Wing | 74c | 42.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Team Liquid | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Team Liquid | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Team Liquid | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Iron Wing | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Iron Wing | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Iron Wing | 70c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Iron Wing (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerIron Wing won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- First Blood in Game 2?Iron Wing won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.