Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3fb0c72291c5caa49006eaafda03a1c78f789e1b6ca952fb7bf0e4fd7010304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 748.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 22c | 649.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 602.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 328.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 16c | 306.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 264.85$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 10c | 219.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 8c | 159.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 123.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 25c | 98.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 80c | 93.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 78.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 78.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 14c | 75.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 74.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 18c | 70.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 68.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 22c | 50.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 50.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 50.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 78c | 49.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 48.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 48.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 78c | 48.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 32.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 25.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 22.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…133ebacked No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 76c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.