Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94939dffad1c2dab01b5b54d59eb5ffe7c23494702f40af2d6bfde4840613830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 37c | 1,382$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.84 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 462.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 280.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 275$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 40c | 252.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 230.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 226.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 26c | 210.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 196$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 57c | 161.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 159.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 38c | 151.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 50c | 135.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 128.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 120.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 116.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 14c | 116.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 115.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 100.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 35c | 84.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 77.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…fd8bbacked Yes | 40c | 72.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 72.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 70.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 68c | 70.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 69.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 62.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 64c | 61.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 58.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 42c | 55.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 52.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 52.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 47.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 43.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 37c | 41.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 39.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 33c | 39.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 37.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 60c | 36.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 36.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 64c | 32.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 68c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…bc3ebacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 43c | 25.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.