Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c033cd84c7eb69f6ac7b0384c552f18a01f7539e9f8b7c24670fe1ac553238e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 50c | 1,154$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.64 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 41c | 370.45$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 350$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.91 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 16c | 317.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.1 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 22c | 272.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 269.84$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 236$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 18c | 175.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 158.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 157.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 55c | 156.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 20c | 152.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 132$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 68c | 116.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 114.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 92.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 89.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 89.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 70.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 18c | 69.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 68.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 68.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 68.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 16c | 66.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 61.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 50.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…8176backed No | 54c | 40.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 69c | 39.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 38.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 30.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 28.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 52c | 28.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 27.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 22.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 69c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 78c | 14.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.