Asian League · resolved market
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41d267cb4c88afa19f2a83b6fa94a0700954a959ae8b473927fa8fe0a55ea8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Over | 45c | 2,243$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.13 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 2,175$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.76 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Under | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.97 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 1,861$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.77 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 1,588$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.6 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Under | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 7c | 917.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 56c | 862.82$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 43c | 682.7$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.56 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 37c | 522.68$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.74 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 42c | 420$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 46c | 329.68$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 54c | 329.68$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 43c | 295.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 57c | 203.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 148.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Under | 57c | 128.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 61c | 126.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 44c | 126.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Over | 45c | 117.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 78c | 102.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 55c | 96.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 27c | 90.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 55c | 87.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 44c | 84.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Over | 42c | 80.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 60.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 49.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1d…32fabacked Over | 43c | 44.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…8640backed Over | 43c | 42.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…d473backed Over | 43c | 40.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…f51dbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…3afdbacked Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked Over | 41c | 32.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 45c | 24.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 55c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Under | 58c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)FC Tōkyō won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.