Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Iran by April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4382dde59e9b53cb1601f1c9655bfadb12b3b01a3f11e6c645093e03a79e67c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 14c | 63,081$8,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,799.75 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…fa57backed Yes | 17c | 24,855$4,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 53c | 11,802$6,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,578.99 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 9c | 9,704$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.63 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…ccbfbacked Yes | 8c | 9,538$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 8c | 8,996$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.29 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 18c | 5,982$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 73c | 4,103$2,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…692cbacked No | 70c | 2,324$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Yes | 1c | 2,280$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 19c | 1,950$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…81f9backed Yes | 12c | 1,703$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +252%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d48ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,595$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 19c | 1,350$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.76 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 50c | 1,320$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.97 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…cfdcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,196$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,083$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,081$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf9…fceebacked Yes | 44c | 1,050$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…ddf6backed Yes | 58c | 933.32$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…d236backed Yes | 14c | 866.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1adf…b8d9backed Yes | 12c | 850.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…cf41backed Yes | 62c | 805.88$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 52c | 722$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…ea07backed Yes | 7c | 636.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 9c | 634.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 52c | 612.69$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 3c | 580.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…fa95backed Yes | 30c | 578.25$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 12c | 566.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 60c | 506.82$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 10c | 465.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 52c | 454.29$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.38 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed No | 48c | 448.44$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 46c | 410$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…cd0bbacked Yes | 4c | 406.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432a…98ccbacked Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…df9fbacked Yes | 20c | 380.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 14c | 342.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…b538backed Yes | 5c | 329.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…247abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad0…1ffcbacked Yes | 4c | 236.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 46c | 229.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1b…02d5backed Yes | 5c | 222.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe586…bd29backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 11c | 192.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…1535backed No | 58c | 173.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…e3e5backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 54c | 146.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 26c | 138.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…4111backed No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed Yes | 51c | 121.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 39c | 117.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…2927backed Yes | 66c | 114.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…33cbbacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…23a5backed No | 65c | 99.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…1c1abacked Yes | 20c | 94.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa80…5a02backed Yes | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…a2eabacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 60c | 75.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…92c7backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…efecbacked No | 42c | 44.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…46c2backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e23…61a8backed Yes | 50c | 40.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…7309backed No | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a5…ded9backed No | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…2bf8backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…3f2fbacked Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…a87ebacked Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.