World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44ba6ae238db2cf052a5a496216cab7a8f8b5887d4b800fffcc842ff0a5656d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ab3…cf9ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,015$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 32c | 422.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 34c | 213.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 146$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 130.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 104$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…7e75backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 86.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…d803backed Yes | 53c | 75.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…1177backed Yes | 36c | 55.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 66c | 43.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…be74backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 75c | 37.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 30.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?this page
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 30% and 35% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?Yes won
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 45% and 50% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 50% and 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win more than 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.