World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb796aa213c72a50adc3eab3e107f05d2500e084f5245529048d25083b5ee58f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 65c | 2,039$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.53 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 25c | 698.06$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.67 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…5b1bbacked No | 35c | 538.65$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 402.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 314$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 66c | 250$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…c00bbacked Yes | 44c | 183.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 165$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 33c | 161.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 37c | 154.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 45c | 109.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 73.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…98bfbacked Yes | 50c | 67.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…52fcbacked Yes | 45c | 44.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 59c | 43.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a90…2024backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad2…5fa2backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…9615backed Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?this page
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 30% and 35% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 45% and 50% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win between 50% and 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda win more than 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.