MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44e5f729fb3648e7c5f55a813a977d8ca3eb2c4cd346ba37947d12edb87cef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 47c | 33,333$15,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,666.51 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 53c | 32,745$17,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,390.2 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 2,393$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 44c | 1,416$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.25 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 1,388$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 1,307$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 47c | 1,241$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.73 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 59c | 1,170$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.43 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 784.44$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 581.39$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.81 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 453$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 428.81$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 54c | 362.41$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 322.45$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 35c | 198.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 55c | 177.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 172.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 40c | 108.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 14c | 91.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 59c | 87.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Over | 74c | 56.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 63c | 43.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Over | 66c | 38.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Under | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 57c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.