Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf462e54801da8a8a744cdeee64b97c5a88faa649b505b63450fb3543f6f16b96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 29c | 587.02$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 271$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 137.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 79c | 126.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 74c | 118.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 74c | 116.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 70c | 110.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 107.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 19c | 106.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 100.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 69c | 99.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 25c | 95.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 33c | 89.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 69c | 80.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 72.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 67.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 65c | 66.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 79c | 58.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 80c | 50.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 27c | 50.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 72c | 47.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 26c | 45.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked Yes | 68c | 35.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…56b3backed Yes | 67c | 26.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 65c | 24.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…8ce3backed Yes | 74c | 24.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 69c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…d48abacked Yes | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…60ebbacked Yes | 76c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…96f6backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.