Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf46b05b4caec04eec1db0e7a9227a3d1465f42cf761963ad2f921fd0e8155a52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 14c | 293.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 22c | 270$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 198.53$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 186.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 154.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 132.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 121.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 111.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 105$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 100.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 66c | 96.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 78.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 70.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 69c | 64.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 24c | 60.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 60.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 39c | 57.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 36c | 53.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed Yes | 36c | 46.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…8a75backed Yes | 44c | 40.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 38c | 39.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 38.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 41c | 38.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 35.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…bb55backed No | 73c | 34.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 29.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 43c | 26.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked No | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 25.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 22.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 65c | 22.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 19.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 17.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 74c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.