Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf46e5f7e3194e8140af7d189da478f78f96116d8cf03135d2388b7515ba0028b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 734.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 502.34$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.4 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 440.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.14 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 428.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.7 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 33c | 426.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.1 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 331.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 319.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 14c | 316.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.49 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 13c | 279.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.13 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 12c | 239.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.34 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 202.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 16c | 197.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 189.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 182.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 172.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 172.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 19c | 161.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 14c | 159.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 129.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 126.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 10c | 118.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 106.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 61c | 104.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 99.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 14c | 92.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 89.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 16c | 73.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 68.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 64.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 50.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 44.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 42.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 76c | 30.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.