Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51c53e90c7c2c8ec354d9d6831d01156a2cf84ce9aaf496116878654472a23b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 373.06$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 16c | 368.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 348$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 72c | 327.11$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 287.16$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 33c | 245$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 239.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 39c | 224.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 212.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 63c | 207.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 196.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 148.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 35c | 147.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 142.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 141.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 67c | 127.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 123.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 106.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 99.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 98.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 95.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 32c | 93.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 87.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 41c | 76.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 64.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 44c | 62.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 60.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 56c | 58.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 50c | 57.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 55.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 54.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 50.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 48.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 66c | 47.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 47.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 43.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 58c | 41.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 58c | 41.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 61c | 41.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 39.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 44c | 39.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 35c | 37.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 34.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 60c | 32.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 32.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 43c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 29.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 28.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 61c | 28.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 65c | 22.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 64c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.