Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff21931a4bc4c6bc5c404fb6c3c06726cdcd6ffd8cf2cdfb0ade625b89a6827d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 500.67$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 345.38$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 263.38$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 23c | 243.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 19c | 192.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 167.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 26c | 156.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 142.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 138$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 114.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 112.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 21c | 100.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 99.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 24c | 92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 91.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 89.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 79.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f980backed No | 76c | 65.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 23c | 59.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 53.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 53.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 75c | 49.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 80c | 41.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 36.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 36.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 32.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 78c | 26.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 75c | 24.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2a…e109backed No | 78c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…c73abacked No | 76c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 75c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 17.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.