Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e859951eeba22caf468b413345e58a5cbf9e7ddf313431fdeab804cb74d3e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 472.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 57c | 399.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.91 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 41c | 313.34$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 312.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 303.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 299.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 5c | 241.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 27c | 233.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 230.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 28c | 229.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 226.9$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 196$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 176.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 175.64$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 29c | 165.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 159.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 157.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 71c | 156.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 155.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 76c | 155.83$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 136.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 27c | 90.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 85.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 78.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 77.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 75.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 74.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 70.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 41c | 70.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 67.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 17c | 64.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 63.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 29c | 58.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 40c | 54.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…f183backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 78c | 49.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 39c | 46.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 29c | 42.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 56c | 40.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 39.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 36.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 32.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 31.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…ca69backed No | 63c | 26.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed No | 71c | 25.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 72c | 23.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 75c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.