Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48038820ad1b9710708393cf3d300c0d32ffe5f6c6cc1ca04e6630801d2eadf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f67…0d67backed Yes | 0c | 42,030$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2380…ba2ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,801$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 3,616$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 60c | 2,917$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.5 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 2,540$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 4c | 2,020$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,740$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,415$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,317$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 1,140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…32d1backed Yes | 28c | 828.33$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 51c | 641.66$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.29 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 35c | 420.69$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked No | 70c | 297.67$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 12c | 274.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 260$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 31c | 226.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 186.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d6fbbacked Yes | 56c | 152.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed Yes | 68c | 146.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed No | 72c | 139.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…7b78backed Yes | 50c | 114.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…2ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…6ee0backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 32c | 99.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 95.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…f81dbacked No | 77c | 84.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…9ad2backed Yes | 71c | 83.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 76c | 77.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 55c | 60.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 60.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed No | 64c | 38.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 37c | 33.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a2…fa4dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…68cdbacked No | 70c | 28.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…9ffabacked No | 69c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…1a89backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 69c | 15.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.