Us Midterms · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,000 and 110,000 voters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4819a7ebc7208ae9457f0c7719303fa66d051765bd01ab288ca33f4e76ea777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes | 44c | 4,400$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 57c | 3,907$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.62 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 2c | 980.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 66c | 899.32$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.12 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked No | 2c | 670.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 533$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 56c | 517.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…f427backed Yes | 29c | 278.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 261.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 16c | 140.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 9c | 121.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 111.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 41c | 77.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 54.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,000 and 110,000 voters?this page
- Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be below 80,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 110,000 and 120,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 and 90,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.