Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48a0e51a38c5be84fdf992aeb37d2be13e911fb2ef2d6898be69f729541b6c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Tundra Esports, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 5,516$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.11 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 56c | 2,750$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.08 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 8c | 2,676$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic | 61c | 2,350$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.49 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tundra Esports | 31c | 1,385$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.84 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tundra Esports | 2c | 1,052$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Heroic | 61c | 983.65$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.64 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 754.83$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.24 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 34c | 617.61$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.62 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 578.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 44c | 385.13$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.96 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…422bbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Tundra Esports | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…6b34backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Tundra Esports | 38c | 245.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Heroic | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 209.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 125.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…4d30backed Heroic | 57c | 82.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 60.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked Tundra Esports | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e7…4763backed Heroic | 63c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…3239backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Tundra Esports | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 20.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Heroic | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.