Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2205076ba3431eb892c42d7bee6258c1cbdcbae6fdbeb2c59cc1adfeab5c6b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Tundra Esports, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 39c | 8,428$3,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,122.27 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Heroic | 60c | 5,327$3,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.25 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 4,968$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.59 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 4,187$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.62 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 39c | 1,491$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.13 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…1a64backed Heroic | 39c | 1,329$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.78 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 1,050$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.5 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Heroic | 42c | 940.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.01 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked Heroic | 67c | 903$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Heroic | 43c | 843.56$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.83 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 793.23$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.28 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 786.41$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 47c | 763.54$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.97 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Heroic | 50c | 560$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.2 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Heroic | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 390$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 262.59$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 167.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…faecbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Heroic | 45c | 151.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Tundra Esports | 16c | 145.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49d…6257backed Tundra Esports | 9c | 141.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9a02backed Heroic | 47c | 128.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Heroic | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Heroic | 44c | 117.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…4461backed Tundra Esports | 18c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 47c | 109.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 100.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Tundra Esports | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed Tundra Esports | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 92.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Heroic | 49c | 86.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Tundra Esports | 17c | 66.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tundra Esports | 49c | 65.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Heroic | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Heroic | 54c | 46.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Heroic | 46c | 42.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…6fe3backed Heroic | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Tundra Esports | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 32.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 31.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 27.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Heroic | 71c | 25.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…e530backed Heroic | 73c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3)Heroic won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.